For many retailers, Black Friday feels like a fourth-quarter event. New data from marketing platform Billo suggests that waiting until fall to prepare could mean entering the holiday advertising season after competition and costs have already begun climbing.
Billo analyzed Meta advertising data from June through December 2025 and found that competition increased about 40% between August and the November peak, while the cost of reaching 1,000 impressions rose roughly 18%. The findings point to August as an important window for brands to begin developing and testing creative before the holiday advertising rush.
The timing matters because Black Friday and Cyber Monday represent one of the biggest ecommerce advertising periods of the year. As more brands compete for consumers’ attention, advertising auctions can become increasingly expensive, making untested creative a potentially costly gamble.
Donatas Smailys, co-founder and CEO of Billo, said companies that wait until October or November risk spending heavily on advertisements without knowing which messages will resonate with consumers.
“Everyone treats Black Friday as a fourth-quarter problem, so everyone ends up competing for the same ad space at the same time,” Smailys said. “Brands that create their ads early and test them in August get better results than brands that wait until October or November.”
Rather than immediately committing large advertising budgets, Billo recommends using August and September to experiment with different creative concepts. Brands can produce several short-form videos featuring different creators, opening hooks and consumer pain points, then evaluate which versions generate the strongest response.
Organic testing can also provide an early indication of which advertisements deserve additional investment.
“You don’t need a media budget to find out if an ad works,” Smailys said. “In August, we tell our clients to post a few short variants organically, each with a different hook and a different creator.”
Billo recommends creating three to five short video variations for each product. Each version can emphasize a different selling point, opening line, creator or customer concern.
The strongest performers can then become candidates for paid campaigns when holiday advertising spending accelerates.
The company’s analysis compared August 2025 with the November 2025 peak using monthly client data from Meta. Billo noted that its cost-per-1,000-impressions figure is derived from total advertising spend divided by total impressions and multiplied by 1,000.
For brands preparing for the 2026 holiday shopping season, the takeaway is straightforward: Black Friday advertising strategy may need to begin months before shoppers start thinking about holiday deals. Testing creative early gives companies time to learn what works before competition reaches its peak.